Six playoff bubble players to watch Sunday at the BMW Championship

The final round of the BMW Championship in St. Louis will decide which players advance to the Tour Championship, the final event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs at East Lake in Atlanta next week. Only 30 players will remain after the BMW Championship, making the line around the top 30 the central storyline on Sunday.

The FedEx Cup Playoffs format is straightforward: the top 70 players in the standings began the postseason at last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship, 50 advanced to the BMW Championship, and only 30 will qualify for the Tour Championship. Reaching the BMW Championship already guarantees players a place in every big-money Signature Event next season. Advancing to East Lake brings additional benefits: a two-year PGA Tour exemption and a spot in next year’s The Masters.

There is also substantial money at stake. The PGA Tour will distribute nearly $100 million in FedEx Cup bonuses after the BMW Championship, although Scottie Scheffler has already secured the $23 million first-place check. The Tour Championship will feature another $40 million purse, including $10 million for the winner. FedEx Cup bonuses are paid through 125th place in the standings before the slate is cleared for the season-ending competition at East Lake.

According to DataGolf, every player who entered the BMW Championship ranked 24th or better had a 100 percent chance of reaching the Tour Championship. That leaves the greatest uncertainty around positions 25 through 30 and the players just outside the qualifying line.

Wyndham Clark leads the BMW Championship at 17 under after three rounds. Rory McIlroy and Patrick Cantlay are tied for second at 12 under. The result at the top of the leaderboard matters, but Sunday will also determine which bubble players squeeze inside the top 30.

Gary Woodland

Gary Woodland entered the week 31st in the FedEx Cup standings but is now projected to finish 19th after three strong rounds. He is 11 under and tied for fourth in St. Louis. If he holds that position, Woodland will reach the Tour Championship for the first time since 2019.

The run carries additional context for the 2019 U.S. Open champion. Woodland underwent brain surgery in 2023 and has spoken openly about his battle with PTSD. He now has a realistic opportunity to return to East Lake for the first time in seven years.

Rickie Fowler

Rickie Fowler knows how narrow the qualifying margin can be. He finished T6 and T7 in the first two playoff events last year, yet ended the postseason 32nd in the standings and missed the Tour Championship.

Fowler entered this week 30th, clinging to the final qualifying position. After 54 holes, he is tied for 35th and projected to finish 32nd. He will need a stronger Sunday to return to East Lake for the first time in three years. Qualification would also put him into next year’s The Masters, giving Fowler only his second appearance at Augusta National in the past seven years.

Justin Thomas

Justin Thomas has missed only one Tour Championship in the past 10 years, in 2023. His position is less secure this time, however. Thomas is tied for 15th after 54 holes, and he needs to finish solo seventh or better to qualify.

The opportunity remains within reach because Thomas is capable of producing one of the lowest scores in the final round. Still, his current position does not guarantee advancement; the specific requirement is a seventh-place finish alone or better.

Patrick Cantlay

Patrick Cantlay has made the biggest jump among the bubble players. He entered the BMW Championship 43rd in the standings, then shot rounds of 67, 65 and 66 to reach a tie for second with Rory McIlroy. Cantlay is now projected to finish 22nd in the FedEx Cup.

He also needs to finish solo seventh or better, but his position after three rounds is excellent. Cantlay has missed only one Tour Championship in the past nine years, in 2020. He won the event the following year and tied for second at East Lake last season, giving him one of the strongest records at the venue among the players fighting to qualify.

Sungjae Im

Sungjae Im continues to climb. He was the only player to move inside the top 50 last Sunday and qualify for the BMW Championship: after tying for fifth at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, he jumped from 53rd to 40th.

Im is seventh at the BMW Championship after 54 holes. He began the week 40th in the standings and is now projected to finish 30th. One more strong Sunday would help him remain there. Im has reached the Tour Championship in each of his first seven years on the PGA Tour and can extend that run to eight consecutive appearances.

Adam Scott

Adam Scott entered the BMW Championship 27th in the FedEx Cup standings and is currently projected to finish 29th. He is tied for 28th in St. Louis after three rounds, leaving him with little room to fall on Sunday.

Last month, Scott played his 101st consecutive major championship. He does not have a comparable streak of Tour Championship appearances, but qualifying next week would give him his 14th appearance at East Lake. Scott missed the event last year after tying for fourth in 2024. He is currently projected inside the top 30, although his cushion remains limited.

These six players will shape the bubble story on Sunday. Woodland is trying to protect a major rise, Fowler needs to move back into the qualifying zone, Thomas and Cantlay have a clearly defined finishing requirement, Im is attempting to extend a seven-year streak, and Scott is defending a narrow position inside the projected top 30. Once the final round ends, the BMW Championship will leave exactly 30 players for the Tour Championship and settle the field for East Lake.