FedEx St. Jude betting guide: 6 picks our gambling expert loves this week

Golf's postseason is upon us. The FedEx Cup playoffs begin this week with the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tenn. The top 70 players in the FedEx Cup standings will compete for a chance to advance through the playoff rounds, with the FedEx Cup and a $20 million prize on the line. Our betting expert, Brady Kannon, has revealed his six favorite picks for the tournament.

TPC Southwind, a Ron Pritchard design with consultation from Fuzzy Zoeller and Hubert Green, is a par-70 course stretching nearly 7,300 yards. It's widely regarded by Tour players as one of the toughest and fairest tests of golf they face all season. With challenging, narrow fairways bordered by penal rough, and smaller, faster greens, accuracy and precision are paramount. Water comes into play on 11 of the 18 holes, making errant shots particularly costly. Historically, winners here have demonstrated a combination of driving efficiency, elite ball-striking, and strong scrambling around the greens. Past champions include Justin Rose, Hideki Matsuyama, Daniel Berger, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Will Zalatoris, and Justin Thomas.

Kannon's analysis focused on key statistics such as strong off-the-tee play, Greens in Regulation, Hole Proximity from 150-175 yards, Scrambling, and performance on par-4 holes measuring 450-500 yards. Correlated courses that informed his picks include Colonial Country Club, Waialae, Pebble Beach, Sea Island, and St. George’s Golf & Country Club.

Brady Kannon's Six Picks:

1. Sam Burns (24-1) Sam Burns was one of the first players to catch Kannon's eye due to his odds. He's had a tremendous season and is particularly familiar with Southern conditions, including the heat and humidity expected in Memphis. Burns has achieved a top-five finish here previously, won at Colonial, secured two top-10 finishes at Pebble Beach, and was fourth at St. George’s in 2022. Over his last 24 rounds, he ranks second in the field for SG: Approach, fourth in SG: Ball Striking, ninth in Scrambling, and 12th on par-4s between 450-500 yards.

2. Ludvig Aberg (28-1) Ludvig Aberg, whom Kannon has featured on his card multiple times, continues to show solid form. His odds remain attractive given his talent and the fact he hasn't yet secured a victory this season. Aberg has finished as high as ninth at TPC Southwind, won the RSM Classic, and was runner-up at Pebble Beach. He excels off the tee and with his irons, and ranks 12th in the field on Bermudagrass with his flatstick. Strong scrambling will be key for him to contend. Aberg is sixth on Tour in Total Driving.

3. Patrick Cantlay (35-1) Patrick Cantlay has been a consistent performer at Pebble Beach and TPC Southwind, recording nine top-12 finishes across both venues, including runner-up, second, third, ninth, 11th, and 12th place finishes. Total Driving and Scrambling have always been strengths for him. He comes into this week off an eighth-place finish at the Rocket Classic, where he ranked fourth in the field for SG: Approach. Cantlay is a former playoff winner and FedEx Cup champion from five seasons ago.

4. Ryan Gerard (68-1) Ryan Gerard may have been overvalued last week playing in his home state of North Carolina. Like Burns, Gerard should be well-accustomed to the heat, humidity, and Bermudagrass greens in Memphis. Earlier this season, he finished runner-up at the Sony Open and 10th at Colonial. Kannon believes last week's missed cut has inflated Gerard's odds too much. Anything better than 60-1 in a limited field looks like a bargain. He is very accurate off the tee and ranks 24th on Tour in Total Driving. Over his last 24 rounds, Gerard ranks 14th in the field in Scrambling and sixth on par-4s between 450-500 yards.

Two Long Bombs:

1. J.T. Poston (150-1) J.T. Poston hails from the South and lives near Sea Island, Ga., making him familiar with the heat, humidity, and Bermudagrass putting surfaces. He has multiple top-20 finishes at Waialae, Pebble Beach, and TPC Southwind. He's also had multiple top-12 finishes at Colonial and the RSM Classic. Just two months ago, Poston won the Memorial Tournament and finished fourth at the U.S. Open. He sits right at No. 30 in the FedEx Cup standings, meaning he needs a strong performance to maintain his position for the Tour Championship. Poston ranks 41st on Tour in Driving Accuracy, 15th in the field for SG: Putting (on Bermudagrass), and 23rd in Scrambling.

2. Nico Echavarria (185-1) Nico Echavarria, a Colombian residing in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla., is another player who should be accustomed to the conditions in Memphis. He is one of the best putters in the world and excels on Bermudagrass, where he has finished runner-up at both the Sony Open and the RSM Classic. He's been as high as eighth at Pebble Beach and sixth at Colonial. Earlier this season, he won the Cognizant Classic. Echavarria finished 12th last week at the Wyndham Championship, ranking fifth in that field for SG: Putting. Over his last 24 rounds, he ranks 24th in the field in Scrambling and 23rd in Hole Proximity from 150-175 yards.

Final Thoughts:

Winning at TPC Southwind this week will be no "Little Feat," but these players have the game to contend.